In the department of fun and imagination and dreaming – with a base of vision – is this exercise of reworking the freight train schedule of Vermont Rail System as if all freight traffic that could went over the rails. All of this is based on traffic that is already moving, just waiting to be hauled by a train. It would be quite profitable. The catch is that it would take sizeable capital expenditures to realize this plan, and while the return on that investment would be better than that realized for road expenditures, it would not satisfy the capital markets.

The major through trains are the following:
Selkirk NY – Burlington – St. Albans (with mixed freight, autos and intermodal)
Mechanicville NY – Syracuse NY (CSX intermodal connector)
Selkirk NY – Brattleboro – St. Johnsbury – Orleans-Newport
St. Johnsbury-Groveton connection
New Haven CT – Orleans – Newport (connecting with MMA)
Selkirk NY – Florence (mostly Omya traffic for Selkirk)
Florence – Glens Falls NY (mostly Omya traffic for NY paper mills & CP)
Bellows Falls – Ticondaroga NY


In addition to switchers and locals there are bulk hauler shuttles that run all day long (maximizing car utilization) as mini unit trains (as short as just a few cars, but usually more like 10 cars). These haul aggregate, logs, wood chips and garbage. Cars used will be quick unloading bottom dump gondolas strengthened to haul logs so trains can be loaded in both directions and cars shuffled around from job to job. Because car utilization is so high and the trains are moving most of the time, these shuttles can make money (when operated with a crew of one person) even if the haul and train length is short.

You will note I’ve taken the liberty (as long as we are dreaming a bit) to expand the VRS system in a few directions that make sense. These could be services operated in cooperation with connecting railroads or outright takeovers.

The plan below assumes that main lines are operated at 40 mph (that’s the bulk of the capital expenditures) with new sidings as needed to facilitate operations and switches that are used every day equipped with time-saving radio controlled power switches.

Because of the power switches, improvements in track configurations and changes in switching procedures, time spent switching in this schedule is considerably reduced. Some of this could be because I’m not quite as familiar with operating requirements as I might be. Through freights will be blocked to drop set-offs off the rear with no switching, just a simple uncoupling and break test. Yard personnel with have a new FRED (flashing rear end device) ready to stick on the new last car.

Lowering time spent switching brings considerable improvements in productivity for all of the other cars in the through train that don’t need to wait as well. Faster timings will allow intermodal service to be operated competitively on the Selkirk-Burlington route.   more »

I have fun making these schedules and I think I get pretty close to what can reasonably accomplished, but I’m also well aware it’s an approximation. There is more involved in crafting a schedule than figuring out how long it takes to get somewhere.

Of course trip time is the starting point. From observing other schedules I’ve worked out some rules of thumb regarding timing:

59 mph track averages 1.2 minutes a mile speed.
79 mph track averages a mile a minute speed.


And so on, figuring between achievable speeds of between 80-82.5% of theoretical speeds.

These speeds that I use are slower than theoretical speeds because a margin needs to be considered to allow for slow curves and bridges, etc. In many cases, achievable speeds are higher than these rules of thumb (which I know because timetabled speeds are or once were higher). In other cases they could be lower, but this just points out speed restrictions that should be lifted if the funds are available. I have available to me timetables for all rail lines in the US, Canada and Mexico and use them (I have official guides from 1920, 1953, and 1967 and Amtrak timetables from the seventies, eighties, nineties and since then).

So when I make my schedules I’m following a scenario with hypothetical constraints, something like “what would service be like if track was improved to 59mph standards,” and so on. I always know the speed limit of the line and make the timetable accordingly.

What I don’t know are all the details. There are so lines I know well enough to know all the speed restrictions, but mostly I just go with my rules of thumb, which is necessarily imprecise. Of course the big ones I do know, even in places far away, and I do account for those, putting in extra minutes for known delays.

And then there is acceleration and deceleration. For an average passenger train I’ve worked out these rules of thumb for minutes to add for each station or slow order: 1.5 minutes at 59mph, 2 minutes at 79 mph. 4 minutes at 125 mph (based on metroliner and Acela timings), 6 minutes at 186 mph (based on TGV timings). Dmu’s have better acceleration and passenger trains with heavy mail and express loads have worse, but I don’t really know how much so. Dwell time is a function of how significant the stop is. Small stations have 30 seconds or less. The TGV dwells 2 minutes at Macon, a town of similar size to Burlington VT. My opinion is that Amtrak dwell times are far too lengthy and could be tightened considerably if passengers were cued to be at specific boarding locations ahead of time and if double and triple boarding was eliminated by extending platforms and if passengers were on the platform ready to board BEFORE the train arrives, rather than after alighting passengers have left, as is the practice at some big terminals.

I like to add stations where I think Amtrak is skipping a potential market, usually suburban locations on interstates or with high populations. My rule of thumb is to stop where there is a population of 50,000 or more to be served – 100,000 or more if it’s an express train. Of course the lack of competitive alternatives makes a huge difference – if there is no nearby interstate and no nearby airport, the train will do better there. I think Amtrak underestimates how much boost to ridership it could get from convenient stations, even in regional markets already served by a central station. Sometimes I’ll also add a station where I know the train already has a slow order (meaning that stopping adds only seconds to the schedule).

Another factor, very important, is congestion. Mostly I duck the issue and make assumptions that my timetables are for service where money has been spent to take car of these issues. On single track lines schedules have to be timed for meets at sidings. Mostly I don't know the locations of sidings, so I duck this issue too. Closer to home, I'm able to take this into account.   more »

An interesting re-working of Amtrak's Florida service was posted by Bruce Richardson, of United Rail Passenger Alliance. My response is below:

Bruce, I liked your re-work of the Florida service in the latest TWAA. I hope somebody is listening.

Anyway I have a couple thoughts of my own to contribute to the scenario:

1. For Montreal service I suggest extending the Palmetto to Montreal instead as it could then roughly follow the schedule of the old Montrealer - but using only one additional trainset. This would give the Montreal service the beneifit of the Vermont ski trade, which is considerable, business to Burlington and Vermont-Florida business. Population along the Adirondack route is pretty sparse north of Albany. At the south end, an overnight Miami section could be added over FEC, making a nice two nights and one day service from Montreal.

2. Looking at the number of trainset required brings up the issue of late trains. If the trains ran more reliably, the service could be run with less trainsets   more »

I believe Amtrak can lower it's margins by eliminating Assistant Conductors. I'll write about this proposal later (I want to eliminate the work too, not just make Conductors work harder). However I don't believe that laying off Assistant Conductors is a good idea - instead Amtrak should increase it's service by 50%, retraining some conductors and Assistant conductors as engineers so that no jobs are lost, but passenger service is increased.

With that in mind, I worked up this scenario for how it might affect Maine service. The other goal here is to expand service to new areas that don't already have it in order to increase Amtrak's political base. Therefore, Amtrak service in this schedule has been extended to Bangor, rather than increasing trips going south of Portland.

To make this happen would require upgrading the Guilford line. I think funds could be found for this if there was a deal to operate it at the same level of subsidy as happens now.

So here is my Maine service timetable with a 50% increase in service.   more »

Passenger Train Journal just ran an article on the Illinois Central’s “mini-corridor” from Carbondale to Champaign to Chicago. In the late sixties, when Paul Reistrup was Vice President – Passenger at Illinois Central, this route was developed.

Two lessons from this article: that local management of specific routes (the “brand manager” concept) does wonders, and that so much was lost when Amtrak began.

People re-creating organizations and networks have a proclivity to disregard the good in what came before them. After all their task is to sweep away all the deadwood, which indeed may be a problem. But it seems to come with the territory to sweep away a good bit of what was going well. At Amtrak George Warrington and David Gunn both fell into this trap. So did the DOT planner and congress when first creating Amtrak.
What if, instead of starting from zero with a skeleton map, the planners looked at each train service that was running and asked if it was performing well (Seaboard Coast Line’s Florida routes, for example), underperforming in a way that could be addressed or irredeemably useless to the whole network.

More below the fold, but here are the direct links to the two schedules I worked up in this 1971 "what-if" scenario: Chicago-Champaign-Carbondale "Mini-Corridor"
Chicago/St.Louis/Nashville-Memphis-New Orleans "Panama Ltd" / "City of New Orleans"   more »

I’ve been impressed with reports of the excellent quality and reliability of Talgo railcars. I suggest that Amtrak order a batch (and give Talgo the contract to maintain them, since they’ve done a better job of that in the Pacific Northwest than Amtrak).

Talgo cars are lightweight and cheaper to operate than conventional equipment and can run faster around tight curves because they tilt. Cars are low to the ground (improving handicapped access), articulated using less axels than conventional equipment and have better aerodynamic performance.   more »

I think it's a real shame that Burlington (Vermont) commuter train service died. I believe it could be sustainable and have a plan for how it could work.

First thing to know is that not ALL the trains were empty. The media spin was that nobody was riding it -- but actually the rush hour trains had 100 people or so per train, which is viable. But that was only three runs, the other 10 (or so) runs were indeed empty.

Also consider that Burlington-Essex Junction is the real core of the service and Essex Junction which the Champlain Valley Flyer did not serve (but could) is the location of IBM, the state's largest employer

So here's my vision, presented in schedule form. (you've got to click this link because it started as an excel document). It's got off-peak Burlington-Essex Junction service all day long and a few peak trains from Shelburne, St. Albans, Montpelier/Barre. It assumes 59mph service. I do believe this is doable, although of course it would take capital costs to set up.   more »

I present at this link, an imagined schedule for an improved Amtrak service to Vermont on the Connecticut River Valley route. I believe this should improve financial results at the same time as improving service. Highlights are a return of the Montrealer (as an extension of a Florida train, using only one extra equipment set) and an extension of a Springfield train from White River Junction, (not using any new equipment at all, just laying over at WRJ overnight instead of Springfield). Efficient use of equipment is part of what makes these runs financially viable.   more »